Tag Archives: politics

210. Trump Nationalism has a Negative Global Impact

18 Jun
.      **** (For VIRUS info, Please See my Two PREVIOUS blogs) ****
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The effects of Trump mismanagement are much larger than national. The US has a history of world leadership and influence, so many countries will suffer because of him. I have listed below some of the most serious errors. 
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THE PANDEMIC
The Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit“ was established by
President Obama in 2015 to deal effectively with viruses, such as covid-19.
Without consulting with experts, Trump abolished this unit, and failed to make early preparations for fighting this virus. Instead, he told everyone not to be concerned and the virus would soon be gone. The US could have been working on this problem early in January, instead, there were at least two months of  little activity. The only thing Trump did early, was to stop travel from China. If he had worked with experts, they would have discovered that travel from Europe was much more dangerous. An effective US leader would have encouraged research and organized necessary supplies. We could have developed the most effective methods, and we could have helped other countries in their use. It seems that Trump does not understand that helping others will also help the US.
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CLIMATE CHANGE
For many years, almost every scientist has supported the fact that the industrial revolution led to increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The global effect was and is to increase planet warming. Trump does not believe that this man-made warming has the serious effects of deaths caused by high temperatures, worse hurricanes, increased fires, and floods. Changes in rainfall are having effects on farming, so that many people will not have enough food to survive. We are already having more immigration due to starvation and this will only become worse — possibly leading to wars. Strong leadership by Trump, in this area, could have made a big difference.
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.             Trump uses coercion; Obama used cooperation.
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OTHER AREAS
Trump has assumed that our country can stand alone, and that we must run it like a business. He emphasizes the accumulation of wealth, and the economic defeat of all other countries. He has broken our beneficial alliances with other countries and attacked NATO. Even worse, he has supported Russia, N. Korea, and Turkey.  He caused many deaths of our allies, the Kurds, that helped us defeat ISIS.
Global trade policies have mostly been ineffective. We are spending many billions of dollars supporting our farmers because of failed policies.
Trump abandoned an international agreement with Iran, that was preventing the development of nuclear weapons. Iran (and also N. Korea) now threaten the entire world with their nuclear development.
The ultimate effect of Trump’s aberrant and inconsistent policies is a loss of worldwide respect and the abdication of world leadership. His frequent lying, crudeness, and lack of knowledge also has a negative international effect.
Just out. The Bolton book documents actions by Trump that have a negative international effect. His “deals” with certain other nations diminishes his ability to lead and constructively influence others. For a good list of  the book excerpts, see The Guardian, June 17, 2020, Max Benwell.
 

 

 

 

209. Immune System, Vit. C, and Viruses (With References)

26 May

Please see my previous Blog 208, for additional information and references.

.                          BASIC PHYSIOLOGICAL ARGUMENTS 

Most of the following logic is accepted by medical scientists, but in practice, is often ignored. The immune system is a host defense that protects against disease. The immune system is enhanced by good nutrition, and other health factors. Vitamin C, other vitamins, and some other nutrients provide this good nutrition. Variations in response to virus attacks are likely due to variations in immune systems. Many MD’s believe that vitamin supplements are not needed because they assume everyone has a healthy diet. Clearly, this is not true.  Exploring the use of Vit. C and other supplements for covid-19 should be encouraged.  

Here are some reasons why use of vitamins may be ignored Early studies used small doses of vitamins and they were ineffective. As a consequence many leaders discouraged vitamin supplements and tended to ignore further work. Many physicians prefer  prescription drugs because they can be better controlled, and were developed using rigorous experiments and established safety methods.

Experiments using the most rigorous scientific methods are almost impossible to do, in the area of vitamin effectiveness. For example, Vit C is most effective when the first “cold symptoms” are noticed, and several grams are taken immediately. The timing is somewhat vague and the reliability of patient compliance and reporting is questionable. Further, drug companies would not support this work and most researchers would not be interested. Federal support is controlled by medical experts and most of them would not be interested.

Often argued is that higher doses of Vit C and other vitamins are not absorbed by the body and are eliminated. This is not a good argument because the vitamins could be serving as catalysts (not consumened in chemical reactions). Vit C could have a positive effect on pH. Large concentrations of vitamins might be required to get enough into certain narrow end organs.

Another thought is that vitamin supplements are not necessary because a healthy diet contains all the necessary vitamins a person needs. Just saying this does not make it so — it takes a lot of experimentation to actualy prove this. A healthy diet might prevent some major diseases like scurvy, but the world has evolved a great many other disorders. Even more important, many, perhaps most people do not have a really “healthy diet,” and eat a lot of doughnuts, candy bars, sausages, white bread, lots of cheeseburgers — and very few vegetables.

To summarize, every profession has certain preferences that appeal to its members for a variety of reasons, some of which are valid and some maybe not.

                                           MY PROPOSALS

1. The CDC, AMA, or NIH, etc could publish some dietary information and encourage people to greatly improve their nutrition.
2. There could be some simple experiments such as the following. Randomly assign (blind) patients admitted to a hospital to an experimental (Vit C) and control group (placebo). As soon as they are admitted give them 3.0 grams of Vit C with lots of water. Then, every moring and night, prescribe 2 to 3 grams of Vit C (placebo for the control group). Record date of release, use of equipment like ventilaters, temperature, etc. Do this for a total of 100 or more patients and compare the groups. This is not ideal, but if there are significant effects, this could encourage wider application.
3. Researchers could apply for gov grants for more extensive rigorous studies.
4. Encourage private physicians to prescribe Vit C and other health factors and
record informally procedures and results. These could be published.
5. Eventhough there are no rigorous studies, physicians could still advise the use of nutritional factors, including Vit C. Most of the things we do in life are not “proven.” We simply gather all of the “relevant” facts, study them, and make a final decision. In this case, there is little if any risk. Good food and vitamins are very well established and safe. The major side effect is better health. The cost is comparatively small.

                        REFERENCES (with some summaries)

Listings below are by professional journal, newspaper, or Internet address, followed by brief quotations and/or relevant facts. (PMC = PubMed Central).

ROLE OF THE IMMUNE SYSTEM AND HEALTH

The immune system is a host defense system that protects against disease. It has amazing protective functions implemented by tiny particles: indentifying, killing, remembering, and creating new attackers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html
Dr. Bremmer, Mr. Kupchan and Mr. Rosenstein are international political risk analysts. Re the virus: “The American people are far less healthy than Swedes.”
In other words, health is very important, yet our medical profession ignores this.
“Diabetes and hypertension, are two of the most-risky underlying conditions.”
Every type of disorder & age is correlated with infection risk, but instead, a third factor, a persons health, may be the underlying cause.

http://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/how-to-boost-your-immune-system.
Advised: eat a lot of vegs /fruits, don’t smoke, sleep well, lower stress, drink less alcohol.  As we age, our immune response capability becomes reduced, “people who live in poverty and are malnourished are more vulnerable to infectious diseases”

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/well/live/can-i-boost-my-immune-system.html
A healthful diet and exercise are important to maintaining a strong immune system.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6723551/ 2019
Childs, Calder, and Miles:  “Diet and Immune Function”
Adequate and appropriate nutrition is required for all cells to function optimally and this includes the cells in the immune system. Vitamin A and zinc regulate cell division and so are essential for a successful proliferative response within the immune system. Undernutrition is well understood to impair immune function.

VITAMIN C AND THE IMMUNE SYSTEM www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5707683/    Carr and Maggini
Vitamin C contributes to immune defense by supporting various cellular functions of both the innate and adaptive immune system.”

Mayo Clinic site: “Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) is a vitamin your body needs to form blood vessels, cartilage, muscle and collagen in bones. Vitamin C is also vital to your body’s healing process.” Large doses of vitamin C are “unlikely to be harmful.”

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7172861/ Boretti and Banik, Title: “Intravenous Vit C for reduction of cytokines storm in acute respiratory distress syndrome” Vit C was reported to have clinical activity against numerous other viruses including poliovirus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis, human lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and rabies virus in addition to demonstrating activity against influenza and herpes virus. (Refs listed.)

health.clevelandclinic.org/strengthen-your-immune-system-with-simple-strategies/
There are immune boosting foods: whole unprocessed foods are best.
“Vitamin C is known to boost immunity”
In one study, subjects increased ingestion of foods rich in vit. C “every day for a month.” They “had significant decrease in the severity and duration of upper respiratory infection symptoms”  Best diet: colorful fruits and vegetables. Also, lower stress, sleep well, and exercise.

WebMD: Vitamin C is required for the proper development and function of many parts of the body. It also plays an important role in maintaining proper immune function.

health.clevelandclinic.org/3-vitamins-best-boosting-immunity/
Three vitamins best; C, B6, E. Also hydrate (drink water)
“Vitamin C is one of the biggest immune system boosters of all.”

Nutrients. 2019 Apr; 11(4): 708  Harri Hemila.  Vitamin C Can Shorten the Length of Stay in the ICU: A Meta-Analysis.

American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol 72, Issue 1, Jul 2000, pg 139
“These data suggest that men with low serum ascorbate concentrations may have an increased risk of mortality, probably because of an increased risk of dying from cancer.” The way Vit C may function in improving health, is discussed in detail.
(For non-scientists: “serum ascorbate” is Vit C in the blood.)

VITAMIN C AND VIRUSES (Summary, please see my Blog 208 for more details)

Book: Linus Pauling “Vitamin C and the Common Cold” 1970. Pauling won two Nobel prizes. References to scientific studies are listed and a method for viruses is presented.

Nutrients. 2017 Apr; 9(4): 339 H.Hemila “Vitamin C and Infections” (a review)
Vit C halved the number of colds in physically active people. Vit C shortened the duration of colds, in several studies (most used higher doses, such as 6 to 8 grams). Vit C prevented pneumonia in three controlled studies

Nutrients. 2017 Nov; 9(11): 1211. Carr and Maggini, “Vit C and Immune Function” Vit C appears able to both prevent and treat respiratory and systemic infections.

Med Sci Monit. 2014; 20: 725–732. Mikirova and Hunninghake.
Title: “Effect of high dose vitamin C on Epstein-Barr viral infection”
“High dose intravenous vitamin C therapy has a positive effect on disease duration”

WebMD   Vit C “is one of the safest and most effective nutrients.”
Quoting Mark Moyad, MD of University of Michigan:
“There is good evidence for taking vitamin C for colds and flu.” “It can reduce the risk of developing further complications such as pneumonia and lung infections.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7172861/ Boretti and Banik (see above)

SAFETY OF VITAMIN C

Drugs.Com has a long list of severe side-effects for Aspirin, which are much worse than those for Vit C.
Almost any substance will lead to reported side-effects, some of which are not actually valid. Vit C is natural, necessary for life, and safe for almost everyone.  Note: Take Vit C with plenty of water, and divide and space out large doses.

Example from WebMd
“In some people, vitamin C might cause nausea, vomiting, heartburn, stomach cramps, headache, and other side effects.”
“In people who have had a kidney stone, amounts greater than 1000 mg daily greatly increase the risk of kidney stone recurrence.” A reference for this was not given, and there are few if any such cases reported.

My conclusion:  Everything you ingest has a danger at some level and for some people. For example, in a hazing incident, someone was forced to drink a lot of water, and died from it. For 50 years, I have been taking large (several gram) doses of Vit C on occassions when I detected cold symptoms, and have never had any significant side-effects. The danger of covid-19 is ultimately lethal, while the danger of Vit C is in almost all cases, trivial. I have also studied the literature on Vit C for 50 years and have never seen an objective report of a serious side-effect, only unsupported dogma.

                              OTHER INFORMATION

For virus information from CDC:
http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

http://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-antibody-testing-can-help-us-fight-covid-19
It can take several days for the body to produce antibodies to a virus.

For more articles, search: “Vitamin C and viruses” or “Vitamin C and flu”

The Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit was established by
President Obama in 2015 to deal effectively with viruses, such as covid-19.
A future president abolished this unit. Some members just left, and some were transfered to other organizations

 

 

 

 

 

 

207. We Don’t Need a King Trump

25 Mar

0KingTrumpTrump has actually expressed his admiration for dictators, such as those controlling Russia, N. Korea, and Turkey. In an exchange with Joe Scarborough, when told that Putin “kills journalists that don’t agree with him”, he replied that “our country does plenty of killing, too.”

I am seriously concerned that Trump supporters really do not understand why he is a great danger to the US and must not continue as President. Here is a partial list of his worst abuses.

In January of 2020 he disregarded intelligence agencies and highly regarded epidemiologists and ignored the clear dangers of Covid19. This delayed our understanding and actions regarding the disease and probably caused thousands of unnecessary deaths. Testing for the virus was definitely delayed by Trump and his administration. He downplayed the virus so that it would not affect his precious stock market, which helps with his future election. He could have begun working on associated supplies, like protective masks and gloves and equipment like ventilators. He terminated a special White-House group dealing with epidemics. He blamed Obama for having ineffective procedures, when he had three years to correct them.

He left the Paris Climate Accord and ignored the dangers of climate change. He should have worked on our own climate efforts and on supporting valuable research programs. Ultimately, millions of people will die from the resulting hurricanes, fires, floods, droughts, and possible wars.

He withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal, which included several major nations, and was preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The deal was working, according those most familiar with it. Now we have no deal, worse relations with Iran, and more potential dangers.

He failed in his dealing with North Korea. He boosted world respect for them and they continue to develop dangerous nuclear missiles. Expressing his “love” for Kim made him look foolish.

He has lost world respect for the US Presidency because of his childish and rude behavior. By breaking several existing international deals, other nations do not trust him. There is also less trust because what he says is often different from staff statements.

Knowledgeable people throughout the world cannot believe what he says because he makes obvious mistakes and lies. Fact-checkers have counted over 16000 “false or misleading claims” during his three years in office. To show that this count is plausible, one can simply read his speeches and note how the “truth” varies from time to time. For example, he made up a story about why he fired FBI Comey, and then three days later gave an entirely different reason. Another lie is the “do-nothing” Democrat congressmen, that, in fact, created hundreds of bills, which were not acted on by the real “do-nothing” Republicans.

He supported Russia in several ways. In one situation he believed what Putin said, instead of what his intelligence agencies stated. He significantly delayed the imposition of Russian sanctions approved by US Congress. His impeachment was based on an action that favored Russia.

He undermined the FBI, intelligence agencies, and other governmental offices, like the Attorney General. He promoted actions that benefited him instead of our country. His A.G. Barr, a yes-man lied in his description of the Mueller Report.

He appointed many Federal Judges that are radically conservative and in many cases, without appropriate qualifications.

He supported tax changes that primarily support already rich people and corporations, while ordinary people got very little and nothing permanent. His financial policies have greatly increased our national debt.

He made a deal with Turkey, which resulted in the deaths and loss of homes for thousands of Kurds. Kurdish soldiers helped the US fight and destroy the Islamic State. This action has led to further distrust of the US in international matters.

Trump was impeached because he pressured Ukraine to help him with his 2020 election. This was harmful to our ally Ukraine in their fight against Russia, and the delay of needed military support was a major setback for them. This increased global distrust of the US.

He hollowed out many US government agencies, such as the State Department. We lost many valuable experts that helped with vital decision making. Trump said he could make the best decisions on his own (with Tweets, of course). Most of his staff and cabinet were chosen on the basis of loyalty and subservience, rather than competence and experience. Many had to resign and many were fired for calling him “moron” or simply disagreeing.

Many immigrants at our Southern US border suffered because of poorly thought-out policies. Disorganization caused children to be separated from parents in a way making reuniting them very difficult, and still is incomplete. In many cases, Trump has rushed to implement policies without considering the negative effects.

Some of his trade policies were OK, but trade deals with China were a disaster for many farmers and others in the US. Some of our farmers were paid by our government for their losses. The total is more than $20-billion per year. Many losses to others are not compensated at all. In January of 2020 he signed an initial trade agreement with China, that includes many uncertainties. As usual, many people have to suffer to satisfy Trumps ego.

Trump has damaged ObamaCare and tried to abolish it without the promised Republican replacement plan. US citizens were saved by one vote, that of Republican John McCain. Trump has falsely claimed that he was preserving the “pre-existing conditions” feature. It seems that McCain is the last Repub with the guts and patriotism to stand up to Trump.

A vote for Trump is support for a government in which all of the above will continue and likely get worse. The tyranny of Trump must be terminated.

205. How Candidates Really Get Elected

28 Feb

Commentators and reporters often make demands of candidates that only serve purposes such as dramatizing and attracting attention. At the same time, I am generally pleased by the way our traditional press and reporters operate. Some self interest is always present, so it is mostly up to the candidates themselves, to stay out of trouble. There are two types of potentially troublesome demands: urging attacks on fellow candidates, and the other is to provide detailed plans. 

Attacks and competition can lower the likely success of all candidates in a party. Providing a lot of details, sometimes is OK, but every detail can cause rejection by a certain segment of the population. For example, I would suggest that those in favor of Medicare-for-all should say something like this: “our general goals are to provide complete low cost and even zero cost, to all citizens. I (the candidate) will work hard towards this goal. And any such legislation brought to me that has the support of Congress and the people, I will sign into law. Healthcare is so complicated and with so many opposing interests, no one person can make final decisions. I will encourage the appropriate Congressional and citizen committees. And of course,  every plan developed will require OMB estimates of cost. A good immediate plan could simply be improvements to ObamaCare, while more comprehensive new plans are gradually implemented.

Traits for a successful candidate. 

The candidate must be likable. Sounds superficial, but very important for votes. This trait answers my title question: “How candidates really get elected.” This factor probably is most important, but some other traits below could be significant.

The candidate must emphasize key issues for voters, like wages, health care, and jobs.

The candidate must have a substantial history of worthy causes and patriotism.

The candidate should be free of scandals and dishonesty. Sometimes this does not matter much. If folks really like you, then these are less important.

The candidate must look and act “presidential.” This means reasonably good looks, and a mostly serious demeanor with only a few humorous exceptions. Sad to say,  superficial features are very important, particularly to less well educated people.

The candidate must answer questions well and have a pleasant voice.

The candidate must demonstrate that he/she has good judgement. This can be demonstrated by how he/she organizes and runs his/her campaign. All his interactions with people should be appropriate.

            A Good Candidate is Not Necessarily a Good President

The characteristics of a good “candidate” are not necessarily the same as a good president. A really good president would have very good analytic abilities. He would be able to understand and deal with very complicated issues. He should have working experience with this type of thinking.  A candidate could do well, even without this ability.

My assessment of the candidates.

When I study the current list of Democrat candidates for president, it appears to me that every major candidate has a significant flaw. First, I want to say that most are very decent people and all would be a great improvement over Trump. Here are the details.

Age is significant. Three contenders if elected, will reach age 80 in their first term in office. Bernie Sanders is the oldest and also the most radical. He has to lose some votes for these two reasons. In his first primary, I voted for him and I respect him a lot, but he is not as sharp as he was previously. Like POTUS, he has a very dedicated following. Billionaire Mike Bloomberg has some serious political problems, but could be a good president. He should be welcomed and respected because he promises a lot of financial support to whoever emerges. He has a lot of relevant experience and can deal with tough problems. Joe Biden (former vice-president) has a lot of support from black people and unequaled amounts of experience. He is likable in many ways and would make a good president. But he has always made “gaffs” and he tends to be even more inconsistent at his current age. I have personal experience with old age and realize the memory, mental capacity, and strength limitations. Ten years ago, all three could have done well in debating Trump.

Senator Elizabeth Warren is very capable and was my favorite for many years. But I and others were disappointed by her nasty attacks of other Democrat candidates. These attacks could be overlooked, but lately she has not pleased the voters enough. She also developed a health care plan that was very expensive — definitely a victim of too much detail in her plans. Also, she is losing some votes to Sanders.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg is highly intelligent, strong, speaks well, and is very young. I think he has the ability to be a great president and could defeat Trump in debates. In my eyes, he has no flaws, but he will lose the redneck votes because of his love preferences. This is a shame because he is a great person.

The other candidates are good people, but so far, at least, have not gotten enough votes. Senator Amy Klobuchar is really outstanding and has the ability to be a great president. Also, she has a good record of electability. Billionaire Tom Steyer has a good recent record of the right values, but so far, not enough votes. I don’t know of any “flaws,” but for one thing, there is a lack of name recognition. There is a small possibility that he could emerge because others have serious flaws. Governor Jay Inslee dropped out, but I viewed him very favorably.

For me, the best choice is not so clear. One problem is that a candidate could do well with Democrat voters, but not so well with the general population (an example is Bernie Sanders). For people like me, it is best to wait and see who is most supported by the voters, before my actual decision.

 

 

202. Deaths and Traffic Lights.

2 Feb

There is an old saying going back decades: A corner only gets a traffic light, when there is a traffic death there. When I think about what is currently happening in our world, this saying comes to mind. In order for certain good things to happen, we need the impetus of a disaster. Many do not address issues, unless they perceive some sort of major risk.  We could say that the enemy of good government is complacency. 

.                        Complacency Leads to Dictatorships

The first application that comes to mind is the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Under past presidents, Republican or Democrat, people were not really alarmed. Of course, there were criticisms and complaints, but generally, most of us went about our business not particularly concerned. After a long period of questionable actions, concern really mounted. In the 2018 elections, Democrats finally became alarmed and massive numbers voted.  In fact the surge also led to an impeachment. Now, we clearly see the need for a “traffic light on the corner.” And, after a little hesitation, I will state that the President’s behavior has been so egregious for years, that even if you think the articles of impeachment are a little weak, they are still justified. I am sure that if the founding fathers were presented with our current facts, they would agree with his removal from office.

For many people, there is a complacency about climate-change. They might even believe the science, but in their narrow world they don’t feel the danger. It’s another variation of the traffic-light dilemma. No traffic light because my life is OK.

The traffic-light principle could also be applied to the errant evolution of the Republican party. It appears that after Trump was nominated, the Party was able to eliminate more responsible and intelligent members, and attract more transactional and financially desperate folks. The Repubs and Dems ignored the dangers and the errant drift was not prevented because there was no dramatic “death,” just a slow almost invisible decline. After the firing of Comey, the problems were more visible and a Special Councel, Mueller, was appointed.

I want to point out that the “traffic-light” effect is very common.  In one of the subdivisions I lived in, a minority faction was elected because the majority of residents, really did not care much. They were only concerned after the minority group did some inappropriate and expensive things for themselves.

I think if you look around the world, you can see how this traffic-light principle has had its effects. In many nations, there is an acceptance of government for a long time, and change (often bloody) only occurs at some breaking point. I think many of the “Arab Spring” nations went through such a transition.  In Russia, the initial effects of Putin’s leadership were beneficial. And so the population just did not get very alarmed about Putin’s gradual transition to autocracy. Hopefully, some day they will be able to put in the “traffic light.”

 

 

 

201. Current Issues, Briefly #7

20 Jan

This is the 7th of a series of blogs with brief discussions of current issues. The material is based on my Tweets (@RichardLeeWB), unpublished thoughts, and descriptions of various publications that I feel are valuable and worth emphasizing.

I just listened to Alan Dershowitz, stating that “abuse of power” is not a high crime. His extensive research trying to understand the thoughts of early leaders is really pointless, and not a justification for this confusion of issues. His problem is that he does not recognize different levels of abuse. Trump’s abuse was very serious, involving elections, delayed military support, and making Ukraine more vulnerable to Russia. Ukraine is like a buffer zone for us, limiting Russian expansion. It is frightening to think that Trump aids in Russian efforts to dominate.

.   Dershowitz Fails to Recognize Different Levels of Abuse-of-power

Famous attorney Alan Dershowitz says that Trump is King, in fact, even more powerful. Well, if Trump is King, then Dershowitz is the court jester. Trumpism is like a disease that infects everyone near him. Star Ken Starr is also participating.

The NY Times just endorsed Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. For many years I favored Warren, but recently her arguments with Bernie were a little discouraging. For the last year or so, I have been impressed by Klobuchar, who has high intelligence and good judgement.  I also think that Tom Steyer could make a good candidate and president, if elected. Note, any of the Democratic candidates would be a great improvement.  In the end, whoever gets the most public support is probably going to be our best choice for beating Trump. Another four years of him would be a catastrophe for all Americans.

Rachel Kleinfeld in a 2019 TED talk looks at the relation between politicians, gangs, and police; in an effort to understand high murder rates in certain surprising locals. She writes that several major US cities have very high murder rates. For example, in “New Orleans, more people per capita are dying than in war-torn Somalia.” Throughout the world, there are many small areas that have very high murder rates, surpassing those in wars. The ultimate cause for this, is various patterns of corruption. This TED talk is well constructed and fascinating, and the analysis is impressive.

It seems that every human system in existence for some years becomes corrupted. I just read that drug companies are manipulating patents to limit competition and raise prices.  See this December 2019 TED talk by Priti Krishtel.

Don’t be fooled by the RISING stock market. The market rises when investors believe that major corporations will be profitable. Increased corporate profits generally have little or no effect on middle-class wages. Most important: does a full-time salary cover reasonable expenses?  Also, under President Obama, the market was rising at a steady rate and when Trump took office the market simply continued this rise. Obama had major financial problems when he took office, while Trump had the benefit of Obama’s policies.

Imagine a president that encourages and supports scientific methods for improving our lives; rather than growing military, insulting our allies, withdrawing from worthy treaties, and using government for private enrichment. We need a President that works well with scientists and innovators.

Trump is desperate to win in 2020 because when he leaves office, he is very vulnerable. Briefly, the problem is that investigations of criminality will be easier and likely, tax returns will be revealed. Desperation led to the Ukraine extortion, aberrant  military actions, and other mistakes.

A sure sign of a dictator is that he uses government systems to attack his political opponents. Trump and Republicans have had numerous investigations of Hillary Clinton. The latest three-year investigation found nothing. Six Republican Benghazi investigations found nothing. These unethical investigations are not consistent with our traditional American values.

Major World problems are: climate-change and food-supply. Both can be solved with improved laws and methods for ocean fishing and policies. See TED Talks by Johnson & Davis: “Underwater farms vs climate change“.  And, see Savitz: “Save the oceans, feed the world.” National leaders must understand and use science to solve many of our problems, like depletion of fish and acidification of oceans. The same methods for increasing ocean food-supply, also help with global warming.

To Adam Schiff: Dedicated people like you should be proud to receive Trump insults. I would like to see a website that provides a medal for the most vicious Trump abuse. Adam, you are so effective and patriotic that he must attack. Keep up the great work.

Candidate Tom Steyer is becoming a top contender for US President. It is true that he has 1.6 billion and is spending much on his campaign. But that isn’t a negative because he has spent the last 9yrs on worthy causes, like climate-change and health care. Tom Steyer is a good choice.

How many Republican voting citizens have essentially said that domestic factors are great under Trump and the international policies don’t matter much. Well, Trumps disastrous dealing with Iran, which started with withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, brings us close to a major war.

If you like people that really tell it like it is, then Steve Schmidt is your man. Earlier, he was a major Republican strategist. Starting June 2018, he has forcefully denounced the Republican party and Trump, in graphic terms. I also like the honesty in Morning Joe, and others.

Considering all aspects of the Iranian military leader assassination, it seems the dangers somewhat exceed the benefits. First, killing one official does not change government goals or policies. Second, Trump acted alone, ignoring Congress and allies. Third, major retaliation is likely. 
The Iran Nuclear Deal according to those involved, was working properly. But Trump, who is obsessed with winning and proving his superiority, decided to abandon it and impose more powerful sanctions. As a result, military actions are increasing and we are closer to war. Trump should have worked with allies on improving the treaty, rather than abandoning it. One reason for this serious mistake is that Trump’s unethical history requires him to find loyalists rather than competence.  Note that money given to Iran was mostly frozen assets that belonged to them. Some money was interest on a debt.

 

 

 

200. Iran and Trump: Explained

9 Jan

00TrumpTweet-on-Iran5

There are many interpretations regarding our crisis with Iran. This essay outlines the facts and my interpretations.

The original “Iran Nuclear Deal” of 2015 involved the US, UK, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the E. Union. Its only purpose was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal, a very important goal. Neutral observers all agreed that it was effective. Money given to Iran was simply the release of their frozen funds.

Trump withdrew the US from this deal, alleging that it was very defective. He complained that the deal was generally bad, and did not cover many non-nuclear factors. My view is that Trumps main goal was to negate an Obama accomplishment. Clearly, if Trump wanted to cover other areas, he could have tried to add something to this effective deal. Sad to say, but Trump mostly relies on dramatic threats and sanctions, while reasonable negotiations are rare.

.    .       Trump Rivalry with Obama Makes for Bad Policies.

Trumps plan was to develop a whole new deal that included everything negative that Iran was involved in, and to increase sanctions. The effect of his withdrawal and increased sanctions was to insult the other members of the deal and to cause distrust by Iran and many other nations. This withdrawal and his withdrawal from climate-change agreements has caused general distrust in the US. I want to add that “sanctions” most often are not effective with leaders, but do cause serious harm to the people. Trumps withdrawal and plans have actually caused Iran to break the original deal in several ways and to be more dangerous.

The Trump impeachment and his concern over the 2020 election caused him to do something radical and possibly illegal. He needed a distraction, and a boost from his base, so he decided to assassinate a number-two official of Iran, Major General Soleimani. He probably was advised not to do this, but he wanted something dramatic. Also consider that removing one official will immediately result in a replacement, who will usually do whatever was planned. Killing an official of a nation is much different from killing a leader of a terrorist group, and may violate international law.

Perhaps the effect was more dramatic than he expected. He did what many consider to be an act of war, without any Congressional (for example: gang of 8) discussion or approval. This act of Trump was considered by most to be extreme and ill-advised. Trump and his staff were evasive when asked for details of this decision. They also lied when describing its effects on various populations. Iraqis were also angry, perhaps because some of their people were killed in the raid.

Iran promised serious consequences for this killing of its top general, and Trump promised 52 ways Iran would regret its aggression. So far, both sides have limited their military actions.

Iran attacked two US military units, but cleverly in a safe way, causing no casualties and little damage. This was to satisfy his people and to cool down the conflict. All parties described what happened in a self-serving way.

My conclusion is that Trump decisions have caused considerable distrust in him and in the USA. Internationally, he has failed in his dealing with Iran, climate change, N. Korea, and his relationships with our traditional allies; while aiding Russia. His plans to withdraw troops and promote peace have not worked.

 

 

199. Trumps international Assassination Policy

4 Jan

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Major General Q. Soleimani of Iran was assassinated by order of our President Trump on January 3, 2020. This General was commander of the Quds Force, a division responsible for various operations include clandestine. Our Secretary of State claimed that the General  was plotting  actions “that would have put dozens, if not hundreds of American lives at risk.” Critics state that the consequences, retaliations, of this assassination will be more harmful than the benefits.

The benefits of this action are claimed to be American lives that will be saved. Trump pointed out that General Soleimani “has killed or wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more.” He ordered the death “to stop a war and not to start one.” Our military blamed Soleimani for recent attacks on our bases in Iraq, which resulted in the death of a US contractor and some Iraqi personnel. Also, he was blamed for the attacks by protestors on the US Embassy in Baghdad. The Trump administration provided no details on potential attacks by Iran on our people.

The most important criticism for this assassination is that killing this popular General will elevate the US – Iran conflict, moving us closer to war. Severe retaliations have been threatened. Here are other considerations.

Killing one official does not change a governments goals or policies. There always are others that can take over. An “imminent” Iranian attack would already be planned and could be executed by other military officers.

Trump acted alone, ignoring Congressional leaders, which would usually participate in major decisions. Also, as a general rule, any serious attack would be more acceptable if our allies were consulted in advance. Our role in international conflicts, is always more justified if we work with other nations. Our previous Presidents always worked with others.

The assassination of a government official in a major nation is a serious and unusual act. History tells us that this is only done when an actual established “war” is in effect, or the terrorist is not in government. It is a real break of international tradition, to assassinate foreign leaders; and it makes no sense if you want to do valid negotiations.

I suspect that Trump ordered this radical action, more for his personal benefit than for our country.  So far, the effect is more troops in foreign countries and the disruption of many lives, mostly due to evacuations. More of our soldiers will be exposed to dangers.

 

 

 

 

 

198. The Democratic Presidential Candidates

1 Jan

CandidatesDebatePic3Here are my thoughts about the Democrat candidates for President. I have included all those doing well in the polls and a few others that I think are notable.   The ages shown are as of Election day 2020.  Source for the ages and titles is: Jim Geraghty, National Rev, Feb 1, 2019.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 79, I have always liked Bernie, he is a proven patriot and established progressive. Would make a good president, but is really too old for the stresses. For most of his first term, he would be in his 80′s.  After 80 there can be serious losses of memory and other mental capacity.

Former NY Mayor Mike Bloomberg, 78, a decent and experienced man, but not likely to get enough votes.

Former Vice Pres. Joe Biden, 77. I have always respected Biden, but never thought he had the speaking ability to be a great president. He would not be my first choice, for one thing, he is too old to be optimal. However, if nominated or the best choice for beating Trump, I would certainly support him. He could gather a set of top experts that would help him to do well in office.

Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren, 71. I have followed her career for a long time and know her to be patriotic and a supporter of the people. She really could drain the swamp, which is much worse than most know. I like “Medicare for all,” but she may have pushed this too hard. If elected, she might be able to do more for the middle class, and for our country, than any of the others.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, 69 I was disappointed when he dropped out early. He pushed climate-change programs long before it was so popular. He appears to be a very competent governor and so far, has no negatives. My studies of his record as governor would suggest a good choice.

Democrat Activist Tom Steyer, 63, has $1.6 billion. Around 2011 he started an interest in politics and liberal causes. He launched a group “NextGen America.”  He is a Democrat, and supports progressive positions: climate, immigration, healthcare, and education. Mostly, he was an investor, but for the last eight years, has worked hard for the people. I know of no negatives and he could be a good choice.

Minn. Senator Amy Klobuchar, 60. This lady has a great record of winning elections and speaks exceptionally well. I am impressed by her intelligence and ability to answer difficult questions.  She could be the best President if elected, but may not be the best candidate. I think that some people would say that she does not have a presidential charisma, on-the-other-hand, she wins elections. I would be happy with her election.

New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, 59, is not likely to be nominated, as of today.

California Senator Kamala Harris, 56, is younger and strong. I think she lost some support because sometimes she did not express herself well. Could be very good in 2024.

Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, 55. Not well known, but could emerge.

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, 51. He is strong and has good ideas, but does not seem likely to get enough votes.

Entrepreneur   Andrew Yang, 45has proposed a number of unusual far left plans, such as a “Universal Basic Income” of $1000 per month. He is intelligent and answers questions well, but probably too radical for many voters.

Cal. Congressman Eric Swalwell, 40, dropped out early. He is comparatively young, but has considerable strength, speaking ability and charisma. Could be a choice for Veep, or may be great for the 2024 election. He could develop into a top leader.

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 38, makes a great impression because of his high intelligence and great speaking ability. He seems to have a good understanding of the main governmental issues. Could be a great president if elected. For some, however, may not have enough presidential charisma. An asset is his good record in the military. If nominated, I suspect he could do well in debating Trump.

So, who do I think is the best candidate? For a while, it was Eliz Warren. Now what I see is that each of the top contenders has certain compelling elements, and for me it is hard to pick out one. I think I will have to go with whoever gets the most votes in the primaries. Most important, as many others think, is beating Trump.

 

196. Democrats Want the Senate Trial? (Revised)

20 Dec

I heard several commentators say that: of course, Democrats want the Senate impeachment trial. Until Leader Nancy Pelosi spoke, I assumed that it would take place, ASAP. But then Senate Leader Mitch McConnell stated that he would provide a trial that would not be fair, but totally biased towards Trump. So Pelosi is now holding up the triggers for a trial — a brilliant move. The Democrats want witness testimony in the trial, and Senator Chuck Schumer, tried to reason with “Moscow” Mitch regarding this, but did not succeed.

So, there is a real strategy to her holding up the process. Because of the Republican Senate majority and the policy of McConnell there is a 99% chance of acquittal. Trump, of course, wants the trial to happen quickly because he could brag that the impeachment did not succeed and he is innocent. This is his current goal, and it would allow him to pursue whatever illicit acts he wants, almost with impunity.

On the other hand, while the impeachment trial is on hold, it remains a threat. Any illicit actions by Trump could provide further evidence and trigger a trial.  In any event, it is pointless to have a totally biased trial with a negative conclusion.

The delay also has another advantage. There are several investigations in process and the Democrats are waiting for court decisions regarding subpoenas. So it is very possible that more evidence will be available at a later date.

.         MONITOR AND NULLIFY TO LIMIT TRUMP DANGERS

Since removal from office by way of conviction is unlikely it is important to monitor his actions as much as possible. And, additionally, everything that can be done to nullify his orders should be implemented. Congress can do much in this regard, and the states can develop laws that limit Trumps dangers. For example, the states can do much in the area of climate-change, while his tendency is to ignore it.

Just in, the magazine, Christianity Todayhas published a condemnation of Trump for all his immoral and criminal actions. This magazine is very popular among evangelicals, which are major Trump supporters. This is just another type of event, that can make waiting beneficial. At some point, Repubs may feel it is possible to break away from the Trump cult, which holds them with a power, like that of a religion.

The House Democrats have made a highly significant achievement, a presidential impeachment, and in a few weeks (or months) a conviction may also follow. To be rid of this dangerous leader would make so many of us sleep better.  (Please see my blog 194 and others.)